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Well. From one perspective, the nation's protracted bid to host the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for more than three years for the rights to put on the world's biggest environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted tens of thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next fall.

That's not happening. Instead, the summit known as Cop31 is moving to the resort city of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had hoped hosting the environmental gathering could help accelerate Australia's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other senior figures truly desired the bid to succeed. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. It translated to stories in the local and global press saying the government was walking away.

This differed from the message being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the government have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

DFAT, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and sometimes completely against.

Evidence suggests Albanese has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to look at it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on this week may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

The minister outlined on that day an novel agreement that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the Cop president, host and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the matters that the countries actually turn up for – the discussions on how to together combat the climate crisis.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been finalized at the time of writing. The whole thing could fall over before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what looked like an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on climate change.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the global community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. The system is designed to operate by consensus. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is quietly done to encourage them to step aside.

Turkey plainly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's venue had supported the southern pitch.

However, uniquely, Ankara refused to yield. The word "disruption" has been thrown around in recent days, and not only by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to confront the petroleum exporters that offered the Turks with certain protection.

The Turkish president is considered aligned with Vladimir Putin. Several nations feared a summit obstructed from the top if his government managed the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to host an unprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was needed. International frameworks is imperfect and often disconcerting to observe, but global cooperation has empirically had an impact in the battle with global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Despite understandable criticism of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for expanding carbon-based exports, climate activists who attend UN conferences see the minister as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been asked to co-chair negotiation streams at multiple summits he has participated in.

This matters. Although certain critics have downplayed the role of a "president of negotiations", experts from research centers and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations say it is pivotal to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a leader holding the pen who can understand, build consensus and deliver an ambitious outcome. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the Cop other than making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unanswered questions. For example, civil society plays a vital role at climate conferences. What, if at all, can the federal administration do to prevent a restriction on civil society by the host government?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this arrangement looking like the most promising opportunity available to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific region, the nation and the world. This attempt is justified.